CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2025-03-16T21:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-03-16T21:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/37860/-1
CME Note: The arrival of this CME was not clearly detected at L1. CME Note: Partial halo CME with bulk seen to the north-northeast in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery and more towards the northeast in STEREO A COR2 imagery with faint, very wide shock developing in later frames with invisible leading edge containing lobes to the north and east in both SOHO and STEREO A imagery. The presumed source is an eruption from near the vicinity of Active Region 4032 (N35E35) seen as a dimming in SDO AIA 193 as early as 2025-03-16T18:04Z, disappearing loop structure in SDO AIA 171, and brightening in SDO AIA 304. There are two eruptions seen in GOES SUVI 304 imagery emanating from the same area, one seen at 18:49Z and another which appears more Earth-directed at 20:49Z. Triangulation using SOHO and STEREO A imagery seems to more strongly support Earth-directedness and deflection westward than the EUV imagery.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-03-19T15:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/37865/1
Model Inputs:
2025-03-16T21:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-13.0, Lat.=11.0, Speed=455.0, HalfAngle=46.0, Time21.5=2025-03-17T03:46Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-03-19T15:00Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =24.3 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.3
(kp)90=5
(kp)180=7

Other Location(s) Impact:
BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-03-17T20:40Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-03-18T01:36Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-03-19T22:30Z
Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-03-22T02:00Z
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-03-21T22:00Z
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-03-21T16:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_034600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_034600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_034600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_034600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = 
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_034600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_034600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_034600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_034600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_034600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_034600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_034600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_034600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_034600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_034600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_034600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250317_034600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Attached WSA-ENLIL+Cone simulation by M2M was executed in support of SEP models and may potentially represent an overestimate of potential impacts relative to observations.

Lead Time: 62.73 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) on 2025-03-17T00:16Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy